An even lower GDP than it could be expected for.

The first-quarter growth of the economy related to the previous one, breaking a process of successive reduction during eight quarters, was lower than it could be, despite pessimistic estimates coming from a lot of analysts.

The effect of the record crop of grains has been neglected due to the low participation of the agricultural and livestock sectors in the GDP. These sectors grew 13.4%compared to the previous quarter and 15.2% compared to the same quarter of the prior year. together with the mineral extraction, due to the recovery of the Oil & Gas production, the GDP was kept from returning to the negative value.

With the crop breaking in 2016, the participation of the agriculture and the livestock in the GDP, that had declined to reach a share of 3.24% in the last quarter of 2016. The reduction of the agriculture and livestock participation in the fourth quarters is usual, due to the lack of significant harvest in these periods.

The growth in the first quarter of 2017 compared to the previous one is, therefore, less relevant than the comparison of the same quarter of the previous year. The significant issue is the 15.2% growth, increasing the share of agriculture close to 6% into GDP.

Agribusiness participation estimates are in order of 20%, involving the entire production chain. This means that about 14% of the GDP is in other sectors, starting with the agroindustry. For example, the production of the sugar and ethanol are already industrial products, as they are the soybean bran and the oil. Being in the primary sector, only the sugar cane and the soybean.

The industry as a whole presents a positive variation in the quarter, driven by the public utilities (energy and sanitation). Even the construction showed a small increase.

The main downwards change was due to the services sector, commerce included, result of the continuous household consumption retraction.

The relevant data on the results of the services was due to the continued decline of the financial intermediation sector. This data suffered a decrease of 1.17% in comparison with the immediately preceding quarter, being the seventh consecutive, and presents a loss of 4.0% as compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Nevertheless, it maintains a higher share of the GDP than the agriculture and livestock. In the first quarter of 2017, its share of the GDP was 7.42%, higher than the 5.82% of the agriculture and livestock.

It is so not strange that the analysts who live daily with this retraction are more pessimistic, distrusting of the numbers of the agriculture and livestock. It is your world in which you are in major crisis and has been pulling GDP down, since the second quarter of 2016, when Temer took over the Government, bringing with Meirelles and Ilan, a drop in the financial intermediation sector that involves banks, brokerage firms and others, has been falling more than GDP.

PresidentTemer assumed the Government bringing with him Henrique Meirelles, the Financial Secretary and Ilan Goldfarjn, President of Central Bank. The fall of the financial intermediation sector that involve banks, brokerage firms and others keep falling more than the GDP. The sector would have reason to be unsatisfied with Temer and the monetary policy of the hid government.

In a mere account, the figures say that agriculture record crop only did not impact more positively the GDP evolution, because it was eroded by the fall in the financial intermediation activity.

Nenhum comentário:

Postar um comentário

Quem vai mandar no Estado Brasileiro?

Os favoráveis ao decreto que flexibilizou o porte e posse de armas, o defendem em função do seu conteúdo, prometido ao longo da campanha ...