segunda-feira, 5 de junho de 2017

An even lower GDP than it could be expected for.

The first-quarter growth of the economy related to the previous one, breaking a process of successive reduction during eight quarters, was lower than it could be, despite pessimistic estimates coming from a lot of analysts.

The effect of the record crop of grains has been neglected due to the low participation of the agricultural and livestock sectors in the GDP. These sectors grew 13.4%compared to the previous quarter and 15.2% compared to the same quarter of the prior year. 

The growth in the first quarter of 2017 compared to the previous one is, therefore, less relevant than the comparison of the same quarter of the previous year. The significant issue is the 15.2% growth, increasing the share of agriculture close to 6% into GDP.

The main downwards change was due to the services sector, commerce included, result of the continuous household consumption retraction.

The relevant data on the results of the services was due to the continued decline of the financial intermediation sector. This data suffered a decrease of 1.17% in comparison with the immediately preceding quarter, being the seventh consecutive, and presents a loss of 4.0% as compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Nevertheless, it maintains a higher share of the GDP than the agriculture and livestock. In the first quarter of 2017, its share of the GDP was 7.42%, higher than the 5.82% of the agriculture and livestock.

It is so not strange that the analysts who live daily with this retraction are more pessimistic, distrusting of the numbers of the agriculture and livestock. It is your world in which you are in major crisis and has been pulling GDP down, since the second quarter of 2016, when Temer took over the Government, bringing with Meirelles and Ilan, a drop in the financial intermediation sector that involves banks, brokerage firms and others, has been falling more than GDP.

The fall of the financial intermediation sector that involve banks, brokerage firms and others keep falling more than the GDP. The sector would have reason to be unsatisfied with Temer and the monetary policy of the hid government.

In a mere account, the figures say that agriculture record crop only did not impact more positively the GDP evolution, because it was eroded by the fall in the financial intermediation activity.

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