quinta-feira, 19 de setembro de 2013

Dilma: rude, short-fused or strategist?

Dilma Rousseff, the President of Brazil, declined an especial State Visit invitation to the U.S., with the right of high style receptions in private conversation with President Obama.
All on account of news from the Brazilian media that American security agencies intercepted her communications. This same media reported that these same security agencies had "snooped" Petrobras which was soon considered an economic espionage.
Dilma was furious, outraged. But was it because she is "short-fused" and reacted emotionally to the news on the most watched television show on the weekend, or because she received copies of the transcripts of her private conversations?
The decision to cancel the trip was not due to alleged lack of apology and convincing responses from the U.S. Government dealing with yet another massacre, this time near the sites of "snooping.
It was strictly for internal and political electoral reasons. Much so that it was taken by the Government Grand Council of Political Marketing with addition of former President Lula, the political chief marketer John Santana and communications adviser Franklin Martins. Everything in view of the 2014 elections in which Dilma's candidate for reelection and as the only viable alternative to keep the PT in power.
The episode and the emotional reaction of the President was evaluated as highly positive in the current circumstances, with part of the Government beleaguered by allegations of corruption and the "mensaleiros" undergoing a process of severe convictions and the popular prestige of the President in low tide.

The evaluation on cancel or at least postpone (what actually happened) was based entirely from the perspective of internal repercussions. A firm Dilma’s position, opposing Obama, the President considered the most powerful in the world, would bring greater electoral dividends.
Moreover it would satisfy the leftist "companions", traditionally anti-American. Not fully satisfied, since they wanted the voyage cancelledwith statements of rupture.
A cancellation combined with the U.S. government allows the development of the version that electorally matters.A version that will be internally disseminatevery little will coincide with the perception and external disclosure, but this is of no importance to the Government. Almost all the Brazilian electorate doen’tread or listen to international news.
The interested is only spread the internal version, dedicated to Brazilian voters.

And regarding the snoopy Information?
It has no major importance, because not all that was collected in the general scanning was analyzed and what was analyzed and reported is not based on the confidential informationl. Brazil is not a target of American espionage, although the Brazilian sensationalist media and the Government would have you to  believe.
On the other hand, using an expression of the former President Lula "everybody does."

And the diplomatic and economic relations consequences of the refusal?
It is a job for the Foreign Ministry to clean up the mess.

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