What is most scaring the PT was not only the coalition of Marina Silva with Eduardo Campos, but the tone of herspeech. Furious, disgusted and outraged, despite the mild and meek words herused.
The big coup perpetrated by Lula and the PT, realizing the flaws of Marina Silva and his supporters or sympathizers in the collection of signatures was avail themselves of the law to get her out of the game.
Ceasing to be a candidate, most of its nearly 20 million voters would votepreferably forDilma and a large part would not vote for AécioNeves or any other PSDB candidate.
PT-certificate owners do not vote in toucan, in no way (“Tucano”, Toucan, is the flag symbol of PSDB). A large proportion of “marinists!” voters were from PT.
With no Marina Silva in the dispute they would return to vote in the PT, providing Rousseff victory in the first round. If, perhaps, the election went to the second round, Eduardo Campos also would return to the alliance with the PT, leaving AécioNeves isolated.
Anyway without Marina Silva in dispute, the re-election of Dilma would be assured.
But the PT coup eventually resulted in a "shot in the foot."
Marina Silva led literally to the famous phrase rendered toGetúlio Vargas and already frequently used here: "to the friends everything, to enemies the rigor of law."
She realized her naivety in the process of collecting signatures, because she didn’t accept the alerts that the Notaries were having suspicious activity. She preferred to believe in the honesty and seriousness of the Electoral Notaries, in the same way they were defended by the President of the Superior Electoral Court, Minister Carmen Lucia.
But perceiving the effectiveness of the coup accepted it as an undeclared war and expressed it publicly.
Her speech is a definitive break with the PT. She understood that was treated as an enemy and now wants to destroy the contender. She felt betrayed in trust.
She engaged in the movement "enough of PT", in alliance with Eduardo Campos and indirectly with AécioNeves.
Her subliminal speech to the “Mariniers’- Marina’s supporters” is "do not vote in PT": it is our enemy.
Or not to be so radical: "It treats us as enemies."
Just see the manifestations placed on the social network. They have no diplomacy or Marina’s politeness.
Despite this, many will continue voting in PT, by tradition and seduction.
And befriending with Eduardo Campos she offers an alternative to those who do not want to vote for AécioNeves, a “toucan”.
Without the votes of large part of “Marinier’s”, especially the young, Dilma will have great difficulty in winning in the first round, although can outvote each of each other.
Going into the second round Dilma will face the alliance of the "no more PT", which will have greater possibility to win.
PT’s coup resulted a victory of Dilma that seemed certain, into more problematic with the removal of Marina Silva out of game.
Dilma will have to take good care of her reaction and the following moves, to fix the damage and not make the situation worse.
(versão de Flávio Musa de Freitas Guimarães)