domingo, 13 de outubro de 2013

Paying for yesterday’s errors

The Brazilian economy that seemed to take off toward a glorious future began "looping" with low growth and many problems. The present real situation is much different than what in not so distant times promised the national leaders, foreseeing to today’s present  a rose or blue reality and not gray we live now.
The Country improved a lot, we live better than in previous epochs, but we have the sensation that it could be superior. And comes the recurrent question, that cannot be hushed: “where did we fail?”. Where did we take the wrong decisions, thinking were doing right?
In the present we always believe we’re doing and deciding correctly, promising a better future. When yesterday becomes today we perceive that didn’t happen what we’d like to and come again to the “where did we fail?” question. 
Everything is a matter of risk: it can work, or can not. There is never absolute certainty about the future. We are not infallible.
But usually we tend to believe that we shall be more optimists than pessimists and it comes to muddy the realistic vision.
We shall not overestimate the problems and obstacles, but not despise them as well. E shall not underestimate the potential problems, believe and declare that all will succeed.
Lula and Dilma governments, advised by their permanent political consultant, João Santana, adopded a posture to say that before them everything was wrong and what they did and want to do is correct or will be a success. They believe that the government shall always show an optimistic face and perspective.
Unfortunately not all did succeed and the Country’s credibility has been undermined. Entrepreneurs and investors are suspicious and uncomfortable, and suspended investments.
Brazil precipitated in advertisements of a brilliant future, with the announcements of the pre-salt oil reserves.
The reserves exist, or at least, according to the best available techniques, its existence is proven. But nor Brazil or any other country has present technology to its extraction under economic conditions.      
Brazil should go forward in technology domain before any propaganda, but launce the novelty to conceal a reality: the decline of oil production, due to maturity of old wells.
Begun to discuss the exploiting models and suspended the field’s auctions, creating a dangerous discontinuity to the oil companies.
With the program discontinuity they went to invest in other areas. On top of that, the government precipitated a dispute among States and Cities for royalties that yet do not exist.
Meanwhile the US, having immense shale reserves, worked in silence, no flaunt, in the development of technologies to turn viable the commercial gas extraction at lower costs of the present ones in open seas. Only announced it when the commercial production begun.  

“Meanwhile in the other room”… In Brazil Eike Batista’s Group X big promises turned in fumes or dust. No or very minimal oil quantities in its wells. It can even be within failure standards, but what was promised was complete success.
It led several investors to apply its funds on it that are now calling for their losses.
The international investors didn’t believed and bet only in Eike Batista, but did bet in Brazil. Now they’re frustrated and discrediting the country. The government alone tries to maintain optimism, in sight of 2014 elections.
Brazil already lost the opportunities to continue enlarging or recover the oil production on over salt and is now with bad perspectives in relation to the pre-salt.
The auctions of Libra fields will not be a total flop, but still will not be the desired success.

(Translation: Flávio Musa de Freitas Guimarães)

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